In my last post, I described a disturbing possible future involving a space version of the shoot-out at the OK Corral. The instability of the situation could be driven by speed of light weapons and swarms of small missiles ready to fire at each other. Obviously the quick draw and precise aim could win the day. With the recent realization of the North Korean development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (see https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/28/world/asia/north-korea-ballistic-missile.html), the possibility of a preemptive terrestrial strike to disarm the missiles before a launch, is being considered. Thus, the instability of a shoot-out is even closer to becoming a reality than anyone could have imagined.

The North Korean threat is undoubtedly an exaggeration right now, since delivering a payload to a long range target area is only part of the technical challenge. Successfully surviving the stresses of reentry into the atmosphere, and then precisely detonation the weapon are formidable problems, but North Korea is making rapid progress, probably with assistance from others.  So it is necessary that we get even more serious about missile defense. Unfortunately, we have already spent almost $200 billion during the last thirty years, and there is no guarantee even with enormous increases that we can ever have 100% protection against missile attack. I used to say there is no 100% guarantee in any complex system. There is no way to test a defensive system under a totally realistic war scenario. An actual missile strike could be preceded by deceptive tactics, conventional ground and cyber-attacks that would cloud rapid decision making with the thick fog of war.

I’ll discuss America’s missile defense options further in my next post and you can learn more about strategic defense in my soon-to-be-published book “Death Rays and Delusions.”