Tag: North Korea; North Korean missile

Sharing SDI

On By gyonas3 Comments

When I joined the SDIO in 1984, the president gave us clear instructions to figure out how to share missile defense technology as part of his strategy to eliminate all nuclear weapons. At the same time, we were aware that the Soviets would love to benefit from our investments and we were serious about protecting our secrets. I responded with a proposal to share early warning data–not technology–as part of an agreement preventing any surprise missile launches, and, as I expected, my suggestion was rejected as coming from an engineer. Reagan continued to insist that we share SDI, and he wanted to make a deal with Soviet leadership, but they kept on dying before he could sit down with them. Then came a totally new and revolutionary Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev.

Reagan and Gorbachev sharing a pen
In 1985 at the Geneva summit, Gorbachev and Reagan stated, “A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” This was not just propaganda but a deeply felt conviction on both of their parts.

After the latest dust up over North Korean missile tests had passed, our current secretary of state indicated a willingness to consider negotiations with North Korea. It seems to be unlikely to happen, or even less likely to be productive, but maybe we can learn from the history of the one of the most surprising negotiations in history. During three days of one-on-one arguments, the result was almost an agreement to eliminate all nuclear weapons.

President Reagan went to the Reykjavik summit in the fall of 1986 with a spirit of Reagan on Time magazinecooperation and a conviction to abolish nuclear weapons. He wanted to move ahead with SDI that he thought was close to deployment, and share SDI with the Soviets. Secretary of State George Schultz, his principal adviser, had recommended that “we trade the sleeves of our vest and make them think they got an overcoat.”

The young and vigorous new leader of the Soviet Union, Gorbachev also wanted to eliminate nuclear weapons, but his military industrial complex wanted to compete not cooperate. He was told that his industry was only five years behind us in missile defense and could catch up if he could slow us down for 10 years. He was more worried about his own SDI that was preparing to launch its giant space laser and was terrified of a space weapon race in the face of his country’s imploding economy. He had been on the job only since March 1985, but his confidence had already been shattered by a rapidly declining situation that left him desperate to make a deal.

Robot space laser weapons

On By gyonas9 Comments
Gort_Firing
Gort

Gort was a 1951 sci-fi movie robot armed with devastating laser weapons…. now a not too distant future reality. The movie was about an alien visitor who came to earth to save the global population from self-destruction using its newly developed nuclear weapons. The spread of nuclear weapons has become a frightening reality long before an alien visit or the development of laser weapons, but after many decades, high power laser weapons are now on the procurement lists of many global militaries (see https://www.google.com/amp/s/phys.org/news/2017-04-laser-weapons-edge-military.amp.) In the movie, “The Day the Earth Stood Still,” Gort, the robot, was totally controlled by the command “klaatu baruda nikto,” the control of space based lasers will be a lot more complex. Systems of military systems in an escalating scenario of increasing violence is likely to be chaotic with a totally unpredictable outcome. Is it possible for us to look to technology for some way out of this mess?

A space-based defense consisting of a constellation of high power lasers that could zap any booster to a frazzle in a matter of seconds is certainly an exciting option. Decades ago the dream of such technology was too far off for us, but the Soviets took this very seriously and developed and began to test their own giant space-based laser called Polyus.

Polyus
Polyus on Energia

On their first test in 1987, it failed to deploy and now sleeps with the fishes on the bottom of the Pacific. Nevertheless, the technology did result in the deployment of an aircraft based anti-satellite weapon (“China and Russia Advancing Anti Satellite Weapons, US Intel Chief Says”…Space.com, May, 2017.) Then the United States Air Force decided to develop their own powerful 747 based chemical laser called the Airborne Laser or ABL. After racking up a bill of $5 billion over 20 years, the ABL now rests peacefully in the Air Force bone yard in Arizona.

So what are the near term options for missile defense? We could rapidly deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea. Defense against long range missiles was discussed in my second blog post.  As long as the attackers don’t employ complex countermeasures, another possible solution would be our Ground Based Mid-Course defense (GMD), which has recently demonstrated its effectiveness.

The dream of instantaneous space-based defense affords an attractive option for the future, but only if precision strike is accompanied by precision decisions. More than likely this would require autonomous command and control.

A much more desirable approach to missile defense would be to come to an agreement as proposed by President Reagan to Gorbachev at Reykjavik in 1986. Unfortunately, even though they came very close to agreement on abolishing all nukes, their negotiations broke down because of a lack of understanding and trust (as described in my soon-to-be-published book, “Death Rays and Delusions.”) It seems now that trust with North Korea is in even shorter supply, and the outcome of this rapidly changing scenario is very uncertain.

As the great American philosopher Woody Allen once put it, “”More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.”

OK Corral

North Korean ICBM test raises specter of escalating instability

On By gyonasLeave a comment
The shoot out at the OK Corral
An artist’s rendering of the shoot-out at the OK Corral

In my last post, I described a disturbing possible future involving a space version of the shoot-out at the OK Corral. The instability of the situation could be driven by speed of light weapons and swarms of small missiles ready to fire at each other. Obviously the quick draw and precise aim could win the day. With the recent realization of the North Korean development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (see https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/28/world/asia/north-korea-ballistic-missile.html), the possibility of a preemptive terrestrial strike to disarm the missiles before a launch, is being considered. Thus, the instability of a shoot-out is even closer to becoming a reality than anyone could have imagined.

missile test
A long-range ground-based interceptor missile launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base.

The North Korean threat is undoubtedly an exaggeration right now, since delivering a payload to a long range target area is only part of the technical challenge. Successfully surviving the stresses of reentry into the atmosphere, and then precisely detonation the weapon are formidable problems, but North Korea is making rapid progress, probably with assistance from others.  So it is necessary that we get even more serious about missile defense. Unfortunately, we have already spent almost $200 billion during the last thirty years, and there is no guarantee even with enormous increases that we can ever have 100% protection against missile attack. I used to say there is no 100% guarantee in any complex system. There is no way to test a defensive system under a totally realistic war scenario. An actual missile strike could be preceded by deceptive tactics, conventional ground and cyber-attacks that would cloud rapid decision making with the thick fog of war.

I’ll discuss America’s missile defense options further in my next post and you can learn more about strategic defense in my soon-to-be-published book “Death Rays and Delusions.”