Tag: SDI

Remembering the legacy of George H.W. Bush

On By gyonas8 Comments

“It would not be prudent at this juncture.”

On “Saturday Night Live,” comedian Dana Carvey, impersonated President George Herbert Walker Bush with the memorable line, “it would not be prudent at this juncture.” It was not only humorous, but an accurate description of the thoughtful approach, as well as the personality and character of the man who I had interacted with when I was the Chief Scientist of the SDI.

Reflecting on the man after his recent death, I recall the way he acted with prudence after the implosion of the Soviet Union. On Sept. 28, 1991, Bush announced his strategic nuclear weapons plans. He wanted to curtail further deployment of all nuclear tipped nuclear weapons. He wanted to limit all of our ICBMs to single warheads in order to avoid any perceived benefit from a first strike and to negotiate a posture of convincing deterrence. Part of this strategy was that there not be any sort of global missile defense as proposed by Ronald Reagan. He did recognize the growing proliferation of short-range ballistic missiles, and he called for developing and deploying limited defenses that would still be effective against the growing threat from rogue states.

His approach in 1991 was to maintain deterrence based on threat of mutual assured destruction while assuring the Russians that we had no intention of defending ourselves against their ability to retaliate. He had not changed his point of view from that when I met with him six years earlier. He had been asked by President Reagan to visit our allies and negotiate agreements with them to join us in a giant R&D program. Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger offered the allies prospects of lucrative contracts and technology sharing if they would sign on to supporting our SDI program.

I was asked to go along on the trip and provide low key technical back up to the negotiations. Bush invited me to visit him in his office and give him a one-on-one briefing on the program. He was cordial, informal and a good listener, but he obviously was not interested in details. We sat in overstuffed leather chairs next to a coffee table that had a signed picture of his previous vice-presidential opponent Gerry Ferraro. I noticed his plaid watch band that struck me as what would be expected of a prep school high school student and we chatted back and forth as if we were old friends.

After we talked, he asked me to come on over for dinner and continue the discussion with some of his friends. The old friends were all distinguished members of the political strategic weapons community and after dinner we went around the table and shared thoughts with the vice president.  All of the comments about SDI ranged from mild disagreement to outright opposition.

Harold Brown, former secretary of defense under Jimmy Carter, said “SDI is not a very good idea…it is a mistaken commitment to a real gamble.” Other comments basically argued that this program would mess up our relations with the allies that Bush would face on the trip. After listening to all of the opinions without comment, he closed the discussion by saying, ‘This is a listening trip…. not an SDI trip…this is a prudent step.”

I still thought the trip was on and even bought a new suit for the trip, rather than the threadbare one I had worn to dinner, but I soon learned that Reagan had decided to focus the trip on counter terrorism, not SDI, and my services were no longer needed. I should have realized that Bush believed that the trip was “not prudent at this juncture.”

With his calm, careful and thoughtful approach, Bush never sought nor received much attention in the Reagan administration, so it was not obvious at that the time that he was destined for greatness. When he was elected as President, he provided honest and clear-thinking leadership that served our nation well. He will be recognized as one of our greatest Presidents and we sure could benefit from a George Herbert Walker Bush in the White House today.

signs

From no collusion to no collision: a new motto for Space Force

On By gyonas9 Comments

No collision, no collision, no collision.”

 
One of the most certain ways to destroy one of our satellites is for the bad guys to track any of our satellites from the ground and then launch a guided missile into its path. The resulting collision will destroy both objects and spread a tremendous amount of debris into already crowded orbits, so a good motto for the new Space Force is “No Collision.”

 
We might even use the motto on our Space Force uniforms modified from the left over Star Trek uniforms as I suggested in my last post. When the president’s goal of space dominance is achieved, we will of course have to be ready to overpower all of those other nations who have ambitions of using space for their own commercial and military applications and they might not be ready and willing to go along with us. So we will have to establish and enforce our own “Space Rules of the Road.”

 
Liberals have suggested that there should be global rules of the road in economics and I can imagine the Anti-Space Dominance (ASD) advocates suggesting something similar for space. Their ideas would include shared beliefs and accepted rules of behavior such as free trade of products involving space hardware and satellites, minimal application of military power (except to police the bad guys) and trusted investments and business agreements. If we are not willing to go along with this sort of mutually assured survival (MAS) with a live and let live approach, we will need to enforce our dominance of space. Our control of space would then be great again–like it used to be before others decided to compete.

 
Claiming that the Russian and Chinese are already moving ahead with space weapons, the president and vice president have called for “American dominance of space” so there will absolutely be no collision. I can imagine what comes next. We will create a space club and we will collect dues and make sure everybody knows our rules so that they all will all be protected from direct attacks and any space debris or even jamming, blinding or destruction from directed energy weapons. We will own all of the orbits and charge rent for their use. The law of space will be our law, our space, our territory over the entire world and nobody will be allowed  to launch rockets without our permission . Our space warriors will live in fabulous huge orbiting space towers so they can keep an eye on  the various other countries who may threaten us. We will build space hotels and charge visitors from other countries sky-high fees to stay there. Yes, I can see it now … America will achieve total space domination with no collision and we will set our own rules of the road. It will be my way on the space highway. No collision… total dominance… and peace and prosperity for all.

Make space great again

On By gyonas9 Comments

President Trump is calling for the creation of a “Space Force,” a new sixth branch of the military that will ensure “American dominance in space.” Personally, I am whole-heartedly in favor of this proposal. After all,we won’t need to buy new uniforms — we can just find the old ones left over from the Star Trek show and save a lot of money. Creating the Space Force will also bring meaningful employment to many lobbyists, contractors and Congress people who will be chasing after the new funding. It reminds me of when Harold Agnew, my former mentor and the person who initiated my SDI involvement, warned me that the proposed SDI initiative could result in many deaths because many people would be trampled in the uncontrolled stampede to get the new money.

Another source of business would be the turnover of all of offices leased near the Pentagon, and of course all of the new construction for the government labs and offices. Hotels will also be filled with the multitudes of attendees at the high cost conferences explaining the technical challenges and the funding opportunities. Furthermore, if we invite foreign participation, each country will need to host cocktail parties and special events at their embassies, Caterers, bartenders, clothing stores, drycleaners… the number of businesses that stand to profit from Space Force will be endless—talk about an economic boost.

Space Force offers opportunities for the media and information industries as well. Learned professors from Ivy League universities will attack the new military branch and appear on countless talk shows, necessitating counter arguments from proponents. The clergy will need their own air time to go along with their sermons and the arms control advocates will need their own conferences, pamphlets and books. The new Space Force will boost the economy, provide jobs for the unemployables, and will offer a viable recycling outlet for previously useless Star Trek uniforms. I believe this is the best new idea since Star Wars. May the Space Farce be with you, indeed.

predator drone

A revolution in missile defense

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In the past few months, this blog has been focused on missile defense and has been enthusiastic about remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) used for boost phase intercept (BPI).  Up until recently, my knowledge of remotely piloted aircraft has been based on reading available literature. Recently, however, I had the opportunity to visit the General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Predator factory in San Diego and “kick the tires.” The reality was totally convincing. The engineering elegance, manufacturing effectiveness and comprehensive flexibility of the systems engineering were breath taking.

These “little” aircraft are cheap to buy and operate and can go in harm’s way with extensive precision reconnaissance and surveillance connected to remote precision decision making. They also can deliver ordinance for a precision kill followed by kill assessment.  Several years ago I managed a group at Sandia Labs focused on technology components to achieve Reconnaissance, Surveillance, Target Assessment, Kill and Kill Assessment. I called this RSTAKA. In the Predator factory, I saw the entire package that I had envisioned as a military response to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

In 1996, I published an article on the subject in the “Armed Forces Journal” entitled The Option of Last Resort. At the time, I did not imagine the future capabilities of remotely piloted aircraft, sensors, computers and munitions. Today these advances are deployed on the GA RPAs that may provide the capability for not only boost phase intercept but also pre-boost attack. All of the preparations for launch could become targets and offer one more layer in missile defense.

Unmanned aircraft, such as the Predator, have crossed a new horizon in their defense capabilities. After visiting the GA factory, I am even more certain that RPAs will provide the tools America needs for effective missile defense. Learn more about past, present and future revolutions in missile defense in my book “Death Rays and Delusions” available at https://www.amazon.com/Death-Delusions-Gerold-Yonas-Ph-D/dp/0692919554