Tag: THAAD

Robot space laser weapons

On By gyonas9 Comments
Gort_Firing
Gort

Gort was a 1951 sci-fi movie robot armed with devastating laser weapons…. now a not too distant future reality. The movie was about an alien visitor who came to earth to save the global population from self-destruction using its newly developed nuclear weapons. The spread of nuclear weapons has become a frightening reality long before an alien visit or the development of laser weapons, but after many decades, high power laser weapons are now on the procurement lists of many global militaries (see https://www.google.com/amp/s/phys.org/news/2017-04-laser-weapons-edge-military.amp.) In the movie, “The Day the Earth Stood Still,” Gort, the robot, was totally controlled by the command “klaatu baruda nikto,” the control of space based lasers will be a lot more complex. Systems of military systems in an escalating scenario of increasing violence is likely to be chaotic with a totally unpredictable outcome. Is it possible for us to look to technology for some way out of this mess?

A space-based defense consisting of a constellation of high power lasers that could zap any booster to a frazzle in a matter of seconds is certainly an exciting option. Decades ago the dream of such technology was too far off for us, but the Soviets took this very seriously and developed and began to test their own giant space-based laser called Polyus.

Polyus
Polyus on Energia

On their first test in 1987, it failed to deploy and now sleeps with the fishes on the bottom of the Pacific. Nevertheless, the technology did result in the deployment of an aircraft based anti-satellite weapon (“China and Russia Advancing Anti Satellite Weapons, US Intel Chief Says”…Space.com, May, 2017.) Then the United States Air Force decided to develop their own powerful 747 based chemical laser called the Airborne Laser or ABL. After racking up a bill of $5 billion over 20 years, the ABL now rests peacefully in the Air Force bone yard in Arizona.

So what are the near term options for missile defense? We could rapidly deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea. Defense against long range missiles was discussed in my second blog post.  As long as the attackers don’t employ complex countermeasures, another possible solution would be our Ground Based Mid-Course defense (GMD), which has recently demonstrated its effectiveness.

The dream of instantaneous space-based defense affords an attractive option for the future, but only if precision strike is accompanied by precision decisions. More than likely this would require autonomous command and control.

A much more desirable approach to missile defense would be to come to an agreement as proposed by President Reagan to Gorbachev at Reykjavik in 1986. Unfortunately, even though they came very close to agreement on abolishing all nukes, their negotiations broke down because of a lack of understanding and trust (as described in my soon-to-be-published book, “Death Rays and Delusions.”) It seems now that trust with North Korea is in even shorter supply, and the outcome of this rapidly changing scenario is very uncertain.

As the great American philosopher Woody Allen once put it, “”More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.”

OK Corral

North Korean ICBM test raises specter of escalating instability

On By gyonasLeave a comment
The shoot out at the OK Corral
An artist’s rendering of the shoot-out at the OK Corral

In my last post, I described a disturbing possible future involving a space version of the shoot-out at the OK Corral. The instability of the situation could be driven by speed of light weapons and swarms of small missiles ready to fire at each other. Obviously the quick draw and precise aim could win the day. With the recent realization of the North Korean development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (see https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/28/world/asia/north-korea-ballistic-missile.html), the possibility of a preemptive terrestrial strike to disarm the missiles before a launch, is being considered. Thus, the instability of a shoot-out is even closer to becoming a reality than anyone could have imagined.

missile test
A long-range ground-based interceptor missile launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base.

The North Korean threat is undoubtedly an exaggeration right now, since delivering a payload to a long range target area is only part of the technical challenge. Successfully surviving the stresses of reentry into the atmosphere, and then precisely detonation the weapon are formidable problems, but North Korea is making rapid progress, probably with assistance from others.  So it is necessary that we get even more serious about missile defense. Unfortunately, we have already spent almost $200 billion during the last thirty years, and there is no guarantee even with enormous increases that we can ever have 100% protection against missile attack. I used to say there is no 100% guarantee in any complex system. There is no way to test a defensive system under a totally realistic war scenario. An actual missile strike could be preceded by deceptive tactics, conventional ground and cyber-attacks that would cloud rapid decision making with the thick fog of war.

I’ll discuss America’s missile defense options further in my next post and you can learn more about strategic defense in my soon-to-be-published book “Death Rays and Delusions.”

THAAD

Missile defense resembles an elaborate shell game

On By gyonasLeave a comment

shell gameAccording to  Chinese general, military strategist, and philosopher Sun Tzu, “All warfare is based on deception.” The classic shell game uses three walnut shells and a pea to deceive the victim of the scam. The crook uses slight of hand to disguise the rapid moves. In mid course missile defense the reentry vehicle (RV) is the pea and the walnut shells are lightweight balloons. The slight of hand is to make each of the balloons look slightly different from all of the others. The game gets more challenging by spreading out the balloons so the observer can’t attack all of them. So one approach to defeat the balloons is to wait until the threat cloud reenters the atmosphere so the light weight objects slow down leaving only the RV to be attacked with an atmospheric interceptor like Terminal High Altitude Area Defense  or THAAD, which works for a limited area. shell game

Wide area defense requires that either the defense discriminates the empty balloons in mid course or attacks the booster before it can deploy the threat objects. Every booster would have to be attacked and launching many at once from a limited area challenges the boost phase interceptors. If the boosters are driven around, maybe in extensive underground tunnels, the trucks can be the shells hiding the real booster. The key to defense is sensors that can observe and discriminate in all phases including preparations for the attack, and the latest development of swarms of satellites is the key to discrimination.

I will write more about satellites later, then more regarding the vital issue of information and shell gamebattle management software. Does the street smart trickster win the shell game? We can only answer with tests of the defense system in the face of a credible “red team” of attackers….using realistic computer simulations. But how do we test the software against accidental faults or determined hackers who hide their moves under more shells?