According to Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina), the U.S. is getting much closer to war with North Korea. Last week, Graham stated that if North Korea conducts a seventh nuclear test, there is a 70 percent likelihood that Donald Trump will launch a preemptive war. (See http:// nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/12/graham-70-percent- chance-of-war-if-n-korea-tests-7th-nuke.html.)

In prior posts, I have discussed boost phase intercept (BPI)
of North Korean missiles. Not too long ago, our near term capability and the need to be able to do this seemed remote, but the world seems to have changed
rapidly. First we saw photos of what the North Koreans claimed to be a modern miniaturized hydrogen bomb, and then they demonstrated a credible intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach all of the U.S. The surprise was

they had both an H bomb as well as a long range ICBM. This capability threatens a near term EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attack that could damage our electric grid. Recently, we saw reputable experts quoted as claiming that “North Korea could kill 90 percent of Americans” with an EMP nuclear explosion delivered over the U.S. Some experts claim such a single weapon could be very effective. William Graham, President Reagan’s science advisor, testified to Congress regarding this danger in October, 2017 (http://docs.house.gov/meetings/HM/HM09/20171012/106467/HHRG-115-HM09-Wstate-PryP-20171012.pdf). Should we worry? Naturally, it depends on whom you ask. A recently released report said the U.S. Air Force “has microwave weapons that could fry Kim’s missiles.”

 

EMP is an old story and even 10 years ago a congressionally-mandated commission reported that EMP could damage our electronics and our electric power grid so severely that the very existence of our entire society could be threatened. The report caused an enormous yawn because nobody could conceive of a perpetrator who would have the desire and capability to do such a thing. But now we have all been surprised by the rapid development of the North Korean threat, and we seem to be caught with a major intelligence failing.

I reported that we might be able to respond to a missile attack with our midcourse interceptors if the countermeasures such as decoys were limited, but that a more effective approach would be boost phase intercept using high velocity air to air missiles on high altitude drones. The addition of BPI to midcourse intercept would enhance the effectiveness of the entire defense system.

Is electromagnetic energy so lethal that it can destroy our grid or even be used to disarm missiles about to be launched? Well, sort of. It depends on a lot of details that are hard to quantify without extensive tests and analysis. So the EM vulnerability of electronic systems and the rigorous ability to destroy electronic systems using EM waves has yet to be adequately quantified. For every attack mode there are many countermeasures to defeat the attack and survive, so it is a question of experimental and analytical risk evaluation. In my opinion, there is a need for affordable infrastructure hardening, as well as a short- term missile defense response. Fast missiles on drones seems to be the most likely to succeed. Fortunately Congress is considering a $4 billion addition to the defense budget for rapid development of both cyberattacks and a drone approach to BPI. I hope we will expedite our response and avoid any more surprises.

Nuclear annihilation isn’t funny… but during my time in the Pentagon, I learned that sometimes the path to preventing nuclear annihilation could be quite amusing. I also discovered that the only way to cope with serious issues that could easily lead to the end of civilization was to maintain my sense of humor at all times.

Dr. Edward Teller was one of the leading characters in my quest to create a missile defense to protect the United States from the Soviet Union. Teller, the famous “Father of the H Bomb,” was on a mission of his own. His goal was to obtain funding for his pet projects at Lawrence Livermore National Labs and topping that list was the nuclear explosive pumped X-ray laser. Teller saw that the X-ray laser would become the third generation of nuclear weapons, following the atom bomb and the H bomb.

Rumor has it that the first nuclear pumped X-ray experiments relied on long very thin “noodles” made from a weed that grew nearby the lab, the elderberry plant. Perhaps Teller created the elderberry story to obscure the truth since President Ronald Reagan was adamantly against the use of a nuclear system to create his Star Wars defense. Teller aggressively marketed his X-ray laser program even though would require nuclear weapons deployed in space or “popped up” when needed. Caspar Weinberger, the then secretary of defense, referred to the concept as “nuclear powered” to somehow obfuscate its use of nuclear weapons. A single bomb could destroy dozens of Soviet boosters and thus hundreds of deadly nuclear warheads.

I sat in a meeting in the Pentagon in 1985 when Teller demanded another $100 million for the next year’s underground nuclear tests, arguing that Reagan, who hated nuclear weapons, had already promised the money. “Do you want me to go back and tell the President that you turned down his promise?” Teller asked. The guilt trip worked and the funds were made available.

Although I admired Teller’s chutzpah and his exceptional ability to obtain government funding, I never liked the X-ray laser approach. Rather than a solution to missile defense requirements, I saw it as a totally destructive anti-satellite weapon that would aid the attacker and not the defender. Teller and his team argued that the Soviets were already developing their own X-ray laser. No one could debunk that claim since no one really knew what technological breakthroughs the Soviets had achieved.

Meanwhile, back in the evil empire, Soviet scientists were asking their leaders for funding and sharing similar threats about the United States’ technical achievements. I guess the moral of the story is that when it comes to obtaining money, enthusiasm and exaggeration is to be expected, regardless of which country you call home.

Teller did not see his ploy as exaggerated or untrue. He once explained to me “that you cannot lie about the future.” His predictions may have been outlandish but he always spoke (his version) of the truth. And so it goes, the scenario of the advanced arms developers giving advice to technically uneducated decision makers will never end. Take a minute to reflect on the same storyline playing out today among our nation’s leaders, but while you are picturing that, be sure to keep your sense of humor. When you think things cannot possibly get any stranger, just wait… there’s more.