But wait, there’s more…

Nuclear annihilation isn’t funny… but during my time in the Pentagon, I learned that sometimes the path to preventing nuclear annihilation could be quite amusing. I also discovered that the only way to cope with serious issues that could easily lead to the end of civilization was to maintain my sense of humor at all times.

Dr. Edward Teller was one of the leading characters in my quest to create a missile defense to protect the United States from the Soviet Union. Teller, the famous “Father of the H Bomb,” was on a mission of his own. His goal was to obtain funding for his pet projects at Lawrence Livermore National Labs and topping that list was the nuclear explosive pumped X-ray laser. Teller saw that the X-ray laser would become the third generation of nuclear weapons, following the atom bomb and the H bomb.

Rumor has it that the first nuclear pumped X-ray experiments relied on long very thin “noodles” made from a weed that grew nearby the lab, the elderberry plant. Perhaps Teller created the elderberry story to obscure the truth since President Ronald Reagan was adamantly against the use of a nuclear system to create his Star Wars defense. Teller aggressively marketed his X-ray laser program even though would require nuclear weapons deployed in space or “popped up” when needed. Caspar Weinberger, the then secretary of defense, referred to the concept as “nuclear powered” to somehow obfuscate its use of nuclear weapons. A single bomb could destroy dozens of Soviet boosters and thus hundreds of deadly nuclear warheads.

I sat in a meeting in the Pentagon in 1985 when Teller demanded another $100 million for the next year’s underground nuclear tests, arguing that Reagan, who hated nuclear weapons, had already promised the money. “Do you want me to go back and tell the President that you turned down his promise?” Teller asked. The guilt trip worked and the funds were made available.

SDI advisors
Scientific advisors provide counsel to Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger. On the far right is Bernard Schriever, father of ballistic missiles; third from the left is Edward Teller, father of the H bomb; second from the right is Gerold Yonas, father of two daughters and this blog.

Although I admired Teller’s chutzpah and his exceptional ability to obtain government funding, I never liked the X-ray laser approach. Rather than a solution to missile defense requirements, I saw it as a totally destructive anti-satellite weapon that would aid the attacker and not the defender. Teller and his team argued that the Soviets were already developing their own X-ray laser. No one could debunk that claim since no one really knew what technological breakthroughs the Soviets had achieved.

Meanwhile, back in the evil empire, Soviet scientists were asking their leaders for funding and sharing similar threats about the United States’ technical achievements. I guess the moral of the story is that when it comes to obtaining money, enthusiasm and exaggeration is to be expected, regardless of which country you call home.

Teller did not see his ploy as exaggerated or untrue. He once explained to me “that you cannot lie about the future.” His predictions may have been outlandish but he always spoke (his version) of the truth. And so it goes, the scenario of the advanced arms developers giving advice to technically uneducated decision makers will never end. Take a minute to reflect on the same storyline playing out today among our nation’s leaders, but while you are picturing that, be sure to keep your sense of humor. When you think things cannot possibly get any stranger, just wait… there’s more.

Lasso of Truth

A lasso of truth

In my last post I claimed that success in missile defense will depend on the trustworthiness of key people involved in the development of the system software. No problem if everyone involved swears they can be trusted. But how do we know if any individual is really a bad guy who is lying? Bring on Wonder Woman’s lasso of truth, if you believe in comic books.Wonder Woman and lasso But wait, there is more. The inventor of that magic rope also invented the polygraph that measures the physiological responses of the test subject under questioning.

polygraph testThis polygraph approach is the gold standard of deception detection in most high security institutions, such as the CIA, but what does perspiration or blood pressure have to do with lying? Well, there is a connection if false answers go along with stress.

The best liars, however, can be very cool and persuasive if they really believe in their view of reality. The best validation of this is from George Costanza of “Seinfeld.” He stated quite correctly, “If you believe it, it is not a lie.”

Its-not-a-lie-if-you-believe-it-George-Costanza

Given this ability to trick a lie detector, it seems reasonable to keep looking for the magic rope and that may come from the new field of neurosystems engineering, as documented in my course Introduction to Neurosystems Engineering available on iTunes at https://itunes.apple.com/us/itunes-u/introduction-to-neurosystems/id575671935.

It is possible that high spatial and temporal brain images could show indications of “guilty knowledge” that combined with prior knowledge of the subject could lead to a real lie detector. Brain research is progressing rapidly, and some day we might be able to better deal with bad guys working on critical software, but for now, the best approach is the skilled boss who gets to know the employee. Failing that, we must test the defense system extensively, but still be prepared that the hidden bug could get turned on only when the real attack occurs.

hacker

The ultimate missile defense problem

My previous blog posts have focused on lasers, missiles and physical counter measure evaluation. Complicated topics to tackle, however, those are easier to deal with than the fundamental question about making the split second decision to pull the trigger and launch the defense system. The decision would have be made in the unavoidable uncertainties of real war. There are estimates that multiple interceptors would be launched to stop a single attacker, but what if that first attack is a fake? Other analysis suggest a shoot, look, shoot approach to manage the rapidly changing battle or maybe the system is not fully operational or needs to adjust to surprises.

An obvious counter measure to missile defense would be the use of deception and the creation of doubt and confusion. If the attackers can exhaust the defense in an initial salvo, then the real attack could go ahead without any interruption. With the war unfolding in seconds and minutes, much of the process will have to be controlled by computers.

The first step in the attack could also focus on disruption of battle management decision-making software. How can we test that software to determine if it has not already been hacked? Is there a hidden virus ready to be triggered before or during the attack? Ultimately these issues are fundamental, and as I said in my book “Death Rays and Delusions,” software is hard, but at the time I had no idea how vulnerable our information technology would become.

It now appears that even with the most secure hardware and software, the insider, through sloppy procedures or malicious intent, can open the gates to our information systems or insert a virus that would not appear until the moment of attack. So the ultimate success of defense hinges on being able to trust the humans who create and manage the defense software.

It smells of higher politics

The Soviet military fascination with death ray weapons dates back to the 1920s with the publication of the science fiction novel, “Garin’s Death Ray.” The Alexi Tolstoi Garin Death Raystory about the genius inventor Garin described a weapon with pinpoint, but still incredibly destructive, capability. This prophetic novel not only predated by decades the invention of the laser, but it also quoted Garin’s detractors as claiming, “This invention smells of higher politics.”

Two of the three Nobel Prize winners in 1961 for the invention of the laser were Russians and they were instrumental in launching an enormous laser weapon program. Eventually the program struggled with many failures and was only revived in response to Reagan’s Star Wars program in 1984. This effort became a crash program to launch the Soviet Union’s laser Death Star.

On May 15, 1985, the Soviet Union for the first time tested the world’s biggest space Polyuslaunch vehicle Energia. The payload for the launch was the 80 ton Polyus experiment dedicated to the development of a space control laser weapon. Polyus was a giant risk that was characteristic of the Soviet experimental technology philosophy of try it, learn from failures, fix it and try again. The huge gamble had been in the works as a multiyear high power laser program that was already underway but became a crash program in response to Reagan’s SDI initiative.  Instead of trying to compete with their own space-based missile defense program, they decided that laser-based space control would be the most logical path to defeat the SDI. Gorbachev knew that even a minimally successful deployment and test would lead to a space weapon race with the United States. He knew that his failing economy and inferior computer and electronics technology would certainly just accelerate the Soviet path to failure. Fortunately Polyus failed to orbit because of a software problem, and a real star war was avoided.